What is peak oil and why worry?
About 20 years ago, a well respected geologist by the name of Hubbert proposed a radical new theory now known as 'peak oil' which basically says that at a certain point in the late 20th or early 21st century or thereabouts, the amount of easily recoverable oil on earth which had been used by humans was greater than 50% of ALL the oil on earth. He theorized that after this so-called 'Hubbert's Peak' the availability of oil would decrease dramatically. Not because there was no oil, but simply because we got all the easy stuff FIRST. What would be left would be the very difficult and expensive to extract deep sea oil, oil derivatives mined from shale and other hither to unprofitable deposits.
Whilst this does not sound too bad think about it like this: If we assume the first motor car appeared around the dawn of the 20th century then we used half the available oil in about 80 years. However, it must be remembered that for the major part of that 80 years, most of the people on earth had little or no access to motor vehicles. China for example was barely a developed nation for most of that time. THE United States uses about 25% of all the oil produced on earth and yet has little reserves of its own. It is almost entirely dependent on imported oil. China's extraordinary growth in the last ten years has seen an explosion of domestic wealth with the demand for motor vehicles increasing at an astonishing rate. With a population of over twice the U.S. there is no way that China has access to 50% of the worlds oil!
Energy Wars
Many eminent petroleum experts have debated Hubbert's theory however, many others agree with him. Some experts say we reached peak oil in 1985, some 2005. However, the debate over whether or not we have reached 'peak oil' rages and is mostly denied by the global oil companies. In any event, the fact is that the price of oil is steadily increasing and along with that so is the price of petroleum and almost every other product we use. Many see the problem as manifesting itself in the fight for the remaining major oil reserves in the Middle East. To the consumer like you and I, it will mean ever increasing prices with the cost of running a motor vehicle being just too high to contemplate. Another major cost for us these days, is the cost of power for your home or business. Imagine a world where the power is only available on certain days or at certain hours. Some poorer nations live with this reality right now. Its not science fiction!
Global Warming In The Age Of Oil
I have read various reports that predict that the age of oil will be a very small blip on the timeline of human history. It may last for 200 years, probably not even that long. However, the debate on the environmental impact of burning fossil fuels rages almost every day in newspapers and on television around the globe. Whilst it seems that for every expert proclaiming the effects of global warming, there is another equally qualified expert who loudly decries the very same effects. It does appear however that most of us now recognize that a century of pumping hydrocarbon emissions into our atmosphere has had some sort of derogatory effect on our natural environment. We cannot continue to spew effluent into the air and hope it will not impact us. This is another reason why alternative sources of energy need to be developed which are renewable and have little or no environmental impact. The most obvious sources of clean green renewable energy are solar and wind power.
Well What Can I Do?
Firstly, the only thing we can do about our dwindling oil supply is to use less of it both as individuals and for the whole human race across the board! The other solution is to find much more efficient means of converting oil to energy for our cars and power stations.
On a personal level, it would be prudent to take some steps to provide your family with some energy 'insurance'. What I mean by this, is think about generating your own power. The basis of solar and wind power generation has been around for many years. There are commercially available solar power systems and wind turbine power systems which work very well, are well designed and will provide years of free green power. For most of us however, the initial cost of commercially manufactured and installed systems will be prohibitive. But that need not put you off. There are lots of do it yourself manuals, guides and videos on the internet which offer a much more cost effective way of insuring your family's energy future. Shop around and if you're keen, you'll find that the solutions are pretty simple. It just needs motivation, a bit of handyman skill and not only can you save yourself some money but you can do your bit for a greener, more energy efficient world.
Sunday, 28 November 2010
Oil, Energy, and Congress
Now that Congress has recessed for the end of the summer, what are we to make of the energy situation? At this point, I'm getting tired of hearing that $4.00 gasoline is good for me. How can it be good when Americans are spending less of their money on other goods and investing in their gas tanks? Is it good that transportation costs have sent my food bill sky rocketing? Is it good that many Americans have shortened their vacations and cut back on their entertainment spending? Is it good that the working poor are struggling between putting groceries in their home and fueling their cars to get to work?
Apparently our Congressional leaders and one presidential candidate say the answer is yes. While our Speaker of the House is trying to "save the planet", the rest of the world is out trying to find more oil & energy. Let's look at few recent examples:
Egypt announced last week the start of a 9 billion dollar oil refinery and petrochemical complex, which will be located on its north coast. The complex is expected to begin operation in 2010 and will be completed in 5 years. The facility will refine 350,000 barrels of oil per day.
The Tupi deepwater oil field is located offshore of Rio de Janeiro, one of Brazil's best tourist destinations. Last November, the Brazilian government announced that the location could contain five billion to eight billion barrels of oil. The Tupi oil field is expected to begin producing 100,000 barrels of oil in 2010, according to Petrobas, Brazil's national oil company. Petrobas hopes to bring production to one million barrels a day in about ten years.
Finland is building a 1600 megawatt nuclear power reactor. The country currently gets 28 percent of it electricity from nuclear power.
Japan is working to increase its nuclear power production of electricity from 30 percent to 37 percent by 2009 and 41 percent by 2017.
Now, besides threatening to sue the Saudi's and adding more taxes to oil, what has the United States government energy policy done? Let's look at a few examples:
From 2000 to 2007 domestic crude oil production fell 12.4 percent
Through a congressional mandate, 85 percent of the Outer Continental Shelf is off limits to oil exploration. It is estimated that the Outer Continental Shelf contains 90 billion barrels of oil
The Artic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) is estimated to have 10 billion barrels of oil; in 1995 President Clinton vetoed a bill authorizing oil production on 2,000 acres out of 19.6 million.
U.S. Senator Ken Salazar, Colorado, inserted language into the omnibus spending bill last December that places a moratorium on enacting rules for oil shale development on federal lands. The Green River Formation is estimated to have as much as 1.1 trillion barrels of oil shale.
As mandated by the 2007 energy bill signed by President Bush, the U.S. is now required to mix 9 billion gallons of biofuels into the gasoline supply. The mandate is met primarily with corn-based ethanol. At the start of the biofuel mandates, corn was $2 per bushel. The price of corn now is a little over $6 per bushel.
It seems the more our government gets involved, the worse the situation becomes. And where did common sense go? If I see that you need water, I wouldn't send you to a desert to find it. Yet, that's what we do with our oil exploration. Try to find it where we don't know if it exists.
From 2000 to 2007 American oil companies increased the drilling of exploratory wells by 138 percent (on those 68 million acres of existing leases); oil production still fell to its lowest level since 1947. The American Petroleum Institute reported that oil companies had the highest second-quarter oil well activity since 1986.
The United States has successfully developed other forms of energy; clean coal plants, nuclear power, natural gas plants, solar & wind energy. Our most efficient and cheapest forms of energy production are under constant assault from the environmental movement. The U.S. uses 760 gigawatts of power plants to meet current needs. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) estimates that we will need 135 gigawatts of new capacity in the next 10 years. As of now, only 57 gigawatts of power plants are planned. Why?
59 coal-fired plants were canceled in 2007 because of anticoal activist.
U.S. production of natural gas is beginning to decline because of environmental restrictions on exploration.
The National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) succeeded in stopping 13 natural gas power plants in southern California.
We have the best scientist, engineers and technicians in the world. Give them the opportunity to solve this challenge and they will. There are many private companies working on new technology to bring to the market. If our government is going to pick winners and losers through subsidies, many companies will not get into the market.
For example, NuScale Power, an Oregon-based startup company, is seeking federal clearance to begin its project to build a mini nuclear reactor. The reactor can power 45,000 homes, is 65 feet long and has no visible cooling tower. NuScale states that these reactors require no maintenance and do not need to be refueled. At the end of its useful life of about 30 years, the plant is returned to the factory.
This type of technology should be welcomed and encouraged by all. With a small footprint & no carbon emissions, these plants could replace many traditional coal and gas-fired power plants.
This situation does not require a billion dollar bail out from our government. Nor does it require raising taxes on the oil companies. Remember, we tried the windfall profits tax with President Jimmy Carter. That led to a 6 percent drop in the production of oil and a 15 percent increase in oil imports, according to the Congressional Research Service.
If congress would step back and allow all of the energy companies to explore and develop energy in a responsible way, we would not have to struggle with high energy costs. Take away all of the subsidies and let the market decide which means of energy is cheapest, environmentally sound and durable. American technology is more than capable of producing efficient energy and protecting the environment.
Instead of trying to spend more of my tax dollars, why doesn't congress spend more of their time, which we pay them for, to fix the regulatory landscape of energy production. Congress needs to enact some common sense environmental regulations. If they do, the market will give us a diverse supply of energy that is reliable - American made - and affordable
It's time to streamline & simplify this process, now.
Apparently our Congressional leaders and one presidential candidate say the answer is yes. While our Speaker of the House is trying to "save the planet", the rest of the world is out trying to find more oil & energy. Let's look at few recent examples:
Egypt announced last week the start of a 9 billion dollar oil refinery and petrochemical complex, which will be located on its north coast. The complex is expected to begin operation in 2010 and will be completed in 5 years. The facility will refine 350,000 barrels of oil per day.
The Tupi deepwater oil field is located offshore of Rio de Janeiro, one of Brazil's best tourist destinations. Last November, the Brazilian government announced that the location could contain five billion to eight billion barrels of oil. The Tupi oil field is expected to begin producing 100,000 barrels of oil in 2010, according to Petrobas, Brazil's national oil company. Petrobas hopes to bring production to one million barrels a day in about ten years.
Finland is building a 1600 megawatt nuclear power reactor. The country currently gets 28 percent of it electricity from nuclear power.
Japan is working to increase its nuclear power production of electricity from 30 percent to 37 percent by 2009 and 41 percent by 2017.
Now, besides threatening to sue the Saudi's and adding more taxes to oil, what has the United States government energy policy done? Let's look at a few examples:
From 2000 to 2007 domestic crude oil production fell 12.4 percent
Through a congressional mandate, 85 percent of the Outer Continental Shelf is off limits to oil exploration. It is estimated that the Outer Continental Shelf contains 90 billion barrels of oil
The Artic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) is estimated to have 10 billion barrels of oil; in 1995 President Clinton vetoed a bill authorizing oil production on 2,000 acres out of 19.6 million.
U.S. Senator Ken Salazar, Colorado, inserted language into the omnibus spending bill last December that places a moratorium on enacting rules for oil shale development on federal lands. The Green River Formation is estimated to have as much as 1.1 trillion barrels of oil shale.
As mandated by the 2007 energy bill signed by President Bush, the U.S. is now required to mix 9 billion gallons of biofuels into the gasoline supply. The mandate is met primarily with corn-based ethanol. At the start of the biofuel mandates, corn was $2 per bushel. The price of corn now is a little over $6 per bushel.
It seems the more our government gets involved, the worse the situation becomes. And where did common sense go? If I see that you need water, I wouldn't send you to a desert to find it. Yet, that's what we do with our oil exploration. Try to find it where we don't know if it exists.
From 2000 to 2007 American oil companies increased the drilling of exploratory wells by 138 percent (on those 68 million acres of existing leases); oil production still fell to its lowest level since 1947. The American Petroleum Institute reported that oil companies had the highest second-quarter oil well activity since 1986.
The United States has successfully developed other forms of energy; clean coal plants, nuclear power, natural gas plants, solar & wind energy. Our most efficient and cheapest forms of energy production are under constant assault from the environmental movement. The U.S. uses 760 gigawatts of power plants to meet current needs. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) estimates that we will need 135 gigawatts of new capacity in the next 10 years. As of now, only 57 gigawatts of power plants are planned. Why?
59 coal-fired plants were canceled in 2007 because of anticoal activist.
U.S. production of natural gas is beginning to decline because of environmental restrictions on exploration.
The National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) succeeded in stopping 13 natural gas power plants in southern California.
We have the best scientist, engineers and technicians in the world. Give them the opportunity to solve this challenge and they will. There are many private companies working on new technology to bring to the market. If our government is going to pick winners and losers through subsidies, many companies will not get into the market.
For example, NuScale Power, an Oregon-based startup company, is seeking federal clearance to begin its project to build a mini nuclear reactor. The reactor can power 45,000 homes, is 65 feet long and has no visible cooling tower. NuScale states that these reactors require no maintenance and do not need to be refueled. At the end of its useful life of about 30 years, the plant is returned to the factory.
This type of technology should be welcomed and encouraged by all. With a small footprint & no carbon emissions, these plants could replace many traditional coal and gas-fired power plants.
This situation does not require a billion dollar bail out from our government. Nor does it require raising taxes on the oil companies. Remember, we tried the windfall profits tax with President Jimmy Carter. That led to a 6 percent drop in the production of oil and a 15 percent increase in oil imports, according to the Congressional Research Service.
If congress would step back and allow all of the energy companies to explore and develop energy in a responsible way, we would not have to struggle with high energy costs. Take away all of the subsidies and let the market decide which means of energy is cheapest, environmentally sound and durable. American technology is more than capable of producing efficient energy and protecting the environment.
Instead of trying to spend more of my tax dollars, why doesn't congress spend more of their time, which we pay them for, to fix the regulatory landscape of energy production. Congress needs to enact some common sense environmental regulations. If they do, the market will give us a diverse supply of energy that is reliable - American made - and affordable
It's time to streamline & simplify this process, now.
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